Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-17 (147D) ]
Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.2% | 2026-12-17 | 26.0% | — | $9.6K | A | KXCOREUND-26…2.2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market covers only CPI releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the CPI release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data. The last covered CPI release is the November 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index source of record venue-listed
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Core CPI falling below 2.2 percent in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 20%
- Kalshi prices 20% on core CPI falling below 2.2% at any point in 2026.
- Stubbornly high inflation reported in Q2 GDP data is inconsistent with a rapid disinflation to sub-2.2% core, and the 20% price reflects that difficulty.
- The Fed's own hold decision with hawkish dissents suggests policymakers see no near-term path to that level either.
- Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data; sub-2.2% core CPI would represent a return to pre-tariff baseline that current data does not support.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcoreund-26dec10/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcoreund-26dec10 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcoreund-26dec10") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K0L95NMQ77",
"slug": "kxcoreund-26dec10",
"question": "Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"core-cpi",
"inflation-target",
"us-economics",
"2026",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9596,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}