Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? [ resolved 2026-06-24 ]
Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francia Márquez · Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $19 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…MAR | ||
| Federico Gutiérrez · Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $12 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…GUT | ||
| Alejandro Char · Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…CHA | ||
| Will Vicky Dávila | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…DAV | ||
| Will Sergio Fajardo | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $45 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…FAJ | ||
| Will Gustavo Bolívar | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…BOL | ||
| Will Daniel Quintero | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…QUI | ||
| Will Santiago Botero | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $85 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…BOT | ||
| Will Paloma Valencia | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $320 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…VAL | ||
| Will Juan Carlos Pinzón | 2026-06-01 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…PIN | ||
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella | 2026-06-24 | 100.0% | $4.8K | $660K | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…ESP | ||
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro | 2026-06-24 | 0.0% | $2.6K | $65K | A | KXCOLOMBIAPR…CAS |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in 2026 (at the latest) is Francia Márquez, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential or other direct election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for that candidate even if they die or are incapacitated after the election but before taking office. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-24 | 100% |
| NO | Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will Santiago Botero win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paloma Valencia win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Daniel Quintero win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gustavo Bolívar win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sergio Fajardo win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Vicky Dávila win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the next Colombian presidential election? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcolombiapres-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcolombiapres-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcolombiapres-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XXLPNHG7J7",
"slug": "kxcolombiapres-26",
"question": "Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"colombia-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"latin-america",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 724828,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}