Will the Colombian presidential runoff winner's margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points? [ resolved 2026-07-07 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3% | 2026-07-07 | 100.0% | $2 | $220 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P1 | ||
| Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | $29 | $454 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P4 | ||
| Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | $268 | $2.1K | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P7 | ||
| Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | $81 | $1.6K | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P10 | ||
| Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $186 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P13 | ||
| > 15% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $722 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P57 | ||
| Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $346 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P1 | ||
| Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | $41 | $5.0K | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P4 | ||
| Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $172 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…-P7 | ||
| Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | $9 | $39 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P10 | ||
| Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $76 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P13 | ||
| > 15% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | $41 | C | KXCOLOMBIAN2…P57 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.
For raw votes: the total votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Abelardo de la Espriella if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Abelardo de la Espriella loses.
For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella wins, or the electoral votes received by Abelardo de la Espriella minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Abelardo de la Espriella does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Abelardo de la Espriella runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Abelardo de la Espriella will be summed.
If Abelardo de la Espriella wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Abelardo de la Espriella loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Abelardo de la Espriella ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Abelardo de la Espriella is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 100% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be above 15%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 0% and 3%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 6% and 9%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
| NO | Will the margin of victory for Iván Cepeda in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be above 15%? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-83FZ7Q2PM5",
"slug": "kxcolombian2rmov-colombiapres26",
"question": "Will the Colombian presidential runoff winner's margin of victory be greater than 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"colombia-politics",
"presidential-election",
"electoral-margin",
"2027-election",
"runoff-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11004,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}