Will the closest Senate race in 2026 have a margin of less than 1%? [ resolves 2027-01-03 (214D) ]
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 20.0% | — | $3.5K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-TX | ||
| Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 14.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MI | ||
| Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 13.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-OH | ||
| Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 11.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NE | ||
| Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 8.5% | — | $812 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-IA | ||
| Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States… | 2027-01-03 | 8.0% | — | $490 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NC | ||
| Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 8.0% | — | $546 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-AK | ||
| Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States… | 2027-01-03 | 7.2% | $0 | $426 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-NH | ||
| Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 6.0% | — | $358 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MN | ||
| Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 6.0% | — | $165 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-FL | ||
| Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 5.2% | — | $551 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-ME | ||
| Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 5.0% | $1 | $992 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-GA | ||
| Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States… | 2027-01-03 | 5.0% | — | $188 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-SC | ||
| Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 3.0% | — | $72 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-KS | ||
| Will Montana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate… | 2027-01-03 | 3.0% | — | $30 | A | KXCLOSESTSEN…-MT |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CBS News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used.
If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CBS News" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclosestsenate-27jan03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclosestsenate-27jan03.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclosestsenate-27jan03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VB4XX7WLM7",
"slug": "kxclosestsenate-27jan03",
"question": "Will the closest Senate race in 2026 have a margin of less than 1%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"election-margins",
"competitive-races",
"electoral-outcomes",
"2026-midterms"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11610,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CBS News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}