Will Anthropic release Mythos by 2026? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-01 ]
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | 2026-06-22 | 1.0% | — | $4.0K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…N15 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-08 | 1.0% | — | $4.0K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…L01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-08 | 1.0% | — | $2.4K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…G01 | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-09-08 | 5.0% | — | $7.9K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…P01 | ||
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-08 | 9.0% | $68 | $9.7K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…T01 | ||
| Nov 1, 2026 | 2026-11-08 | 11.0% | $8 | $19K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…V01 | ||
| Dec 1, 2026 | 2026-12-08 | 17.0% | $4 | $26K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…C01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 19.0% | $6 | $36K | C | KXCLAUDE-MYT…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Jun 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1)
- OpenAI venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jun 15, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxclaude-myth/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxclaude-myth |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxclaude-myth") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9PCCJDSZ26",
"slug": "kxclaude-myth",
"question": "Will Anthropic release Mythos by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"anthropic",
"ai-models",
"product-release",
"mythos",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 108989,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 36,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}