Which central banks will hike interest rates before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $809 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…ECB | ||
| The Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $595 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOJ | ||
| The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $5.2K | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…RBN | ||
| Norges Bank raise its policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 77.0% | — | $321 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…NOR | ||
| The Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate | 2027-01-01 | 69.0% | — | $17K | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…FED | ||
| The Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate target | 2027-01-01 | 65.0% | — | $660 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…RBA | ||
| The Riksbank raise its policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | — | $367 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…RIK | ||
| The Bank of England raise the Bank Rate | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | — | $2.8K | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOE | ||
| The Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate | 2027-01-01 | 37.0% | $2 | $1.7K | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…BOC | ||
| The Swiss National Bank raise the SNB policy rate | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $111 | C | KXCBRATEHIKE…SNB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Semafor | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve raising the target range for the federal funds rate is confirmed by the relevant Source Agency after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A rate increase qualifies whether announced at a scheduled or unscheduled policy meeting. Forward guidance, speeches, projections, dissents, meeting minutes, analyst forecasts, or market-implied probabilities do not qualify unless the central bank officially announces an increase in the applicable policy rate.
The market resolves based on the official announcement date of the rate increase, not the effective date, unless the announcement does not specify a decision date, in which case the effective date will be used.
If the named central bank changes its monetary policy framework, renames its policy rate, or replaces the applicable policy rate before Jan. 1, 2027, the Exchange will use the central bank’s new main policy interest rate that is most directly comparable to the rate specified above.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Semafor" sources (17)
Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed NBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Reuters venue-listed The Information venue-listed Politico venue-listed Axios venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CNN venue-listed the New York Times venue-listed CBS venue-listed relevant Source Agency from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise the Official Cash Rate before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy rate or target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 99% |
| YES | Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-11 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbratehike-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbratehike-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcbratehike-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FYNLLCWH78",
"slug": "kxcbratehike-27",
"question": "Which central banks will hike interest rates before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"central-banks",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2027",
"economic-forecasting"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29662,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Semafor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}