Will the European Central Bank change its interest rate in June? [ resolves 2026-06-11 (8D) ]

Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will the European Central Bank Hike 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council…	2026-06-11	98.0%	$830	$18K	A	`KXCBDECISION…H25`
Will the European Central Bank Cut 1-25bps at the June ECB Governing Council…	2026-06-11	2.0%	$0	$43	A	`KXCBDECISION…C25`
Will the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the June ECB Governing…	2026-06-11	2.0%	—	$424	A	`KXCBDECISION…OLD`
> 25	2026-06-11	2.0%	—	$104	A	`KXCBDECISION…25P`
> 25	2026-06-11	1.0%	$0	$64	A	`KXCBDECISION…25P`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	central bank	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If the European Central Bank takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at June ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "central bank"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XLXQZ6GB39",
  "slug": "kxcbdecisioneu-26jun11",
  "question": "Will the European Central Bank change its interest rate in June?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "ecb-monetary-policy",
    "interest-rates",
    "central-banking",
    "economic-forecasting",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 18419,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "central bank",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →