CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a specific candidate advance from the CA-32 primary by the election date? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Will Larry Thompson advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 9 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will Brad Sherman advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 98.0%
$3.2K $14K
C KXCAPRIMARY-…SHE
Will Larry Thompson advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 14.0%
$278 $3.0K
C KXCAPRIMARY-…THO
Will Josh Sautter advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 5.2%
$148
C KXCAPRIMARY-…SAU
Will Dory Benami advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 4.9%
$2 $141
C KXCAPRIMARY-…BEN
Will Chris Ahuja advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 0.7%
$2 $29
C KXCAPRIMARY-…AHU
Will Jake Levine advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 0.3%
$5 $54
C KXCAPRIMARY-…LEV
Will Marena Lin advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 0.2%
$37
C KXCAPRIMARY-…LIN
Will Doug Smith advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 0.2%
$1 $8
C KXCAPRIMARY-…SMI
Will Anna Wilding advance in the 2026 CA-32 primary 2026-11-03 0.2%
$1 $7
C KXCAPRIMARY-…WIL
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Washington Secretary of State not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 9 markets · share this text
If Brad Sherman advances in the 2026 CA-32 primary, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-3226/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-3226.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-3226")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WPDV9FW8T8",
  "slug": "kxcaprimary-3226",
  "question": "Will a specific candidate advance from the CA-32 primary by the election date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2026-us-primary",
    "california-politics",
    "us-house-races",
    "election-advancement",
    "ca-32-district"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 17779,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 66,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →