Will the first-place finisher in the CA-11 primary be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | — | $17K | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…WIE | ||
| John Buffler | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $15 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…BUF | ||
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $213 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…CHA | ||
| Connie Chan | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $4 | $256 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…CHA | ||
| Nathan Deer | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…DEE | ||
| Keith Freedman | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…FRE | ||
| David Ganezer | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…GAN | ||
| Omed Hamid | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…HAM | ||
| Gregory Haynes | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $0 | $54 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…HAY | ||
| Marie Hurabiell | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $38 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…HUR | ||
| Jingchao Xiong | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $1 | $39 | A | KXCAPRIMARY-…XIO |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If John Buffler wins the the 2026 CA-11 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" sources (1) · single authority
- Washington Secretary of State source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will John Buffler place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Saikat Chakrabarti place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Connie Chan place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nathan Deer place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Keith Freedman place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will David Ganezer place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Omed Hamid place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gregory Haynes place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marie Hurabiell place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will Scott Wiener place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jingchao Xiong place first in the 2026 CA-11 primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcaprimary-11first26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcaprimary-11first26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcaprimary-11first26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DWVZ5TGXF0",
"slug": "kxcaprimary-11first26",
"question": "Will the first-place finisher in the CA-11 primary be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"ca-11-primary",
"us-house-races",
"2026-primary",
"first-place",
"california-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17396,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Washington Secretary of State",
"url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}