Will a candidate in the California Governor primary outperform their final polling average by the largest margin? [ resolves 2026-06-09 (6D) ]
Will Katie Porter outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026 in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Steyer outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 98.0% | $1.9K | $2.3K | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…RAM | ||
| Will Xavier Becerra outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 96.0% | $2.6K | $2.6K | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…BAS | ||
| Will Steve Hilton outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 81.0% | $2.0K | $2.0K | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…PRA | ||
| Will Katie Porter outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 24.0% | $265 | $265 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…HUA | ||
| Will Tony Thurmond outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 22.0% | $90 | $90 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…THU | ||
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California… | 2026-06-09 | 19.0% | $4 | $5 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…VIL | ||
| Will Chad Bianco outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 12.0% | $528 | $528 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…MIL | ||
| Will Matt Mahan outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 9.0% | $134 | $135 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…MAH | ||
| Will Betty Yee outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 4.0% | $45 | $45 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…YEE | ||
| Will Leo Zacky outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 4.0% | $33 | $33 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…ZAC | ||
| Will Butch Ware outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor… | 2026-06-09 | 3.0% | $83 | $92 | C | KXCAGOVOUTPE…WAR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Xavier Becerra's realized result in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary outperforms their Race to the WH 2026 California Governor polling average at 10:00 AM ET on June 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint is used for comparison. Margins of error are not considered; any difference counts as over/underperformance. If the poll is not released or the election doesn't occur before the deadline, the market resolves to No.
The California Governor primary polling averages are: Xavier Becerra 22.8%, Steve Hilton 22.3%, Tom Steyer 20.2%, Chad Bianco 10.9%, Katie Porter 6.9%, Matt Mahan 5.2%, Antonio Villaraigosa 2.8%, Butch Ware 2%, Tony Thurmond 1.1%, Betty Yee 1%
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcagovoutperform-26jun02/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcagovoutperform-26jun02.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcagovoutperform-26jun02") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DHC69ZRZZ6",
"slug": "kxcagovoutperform-26jun02",
"question": "Will a candidate in the California Governor primary outperform their final polling average by the largest margin?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-governor-2026",
"polling-outperformance",
"primary-election",
"us-politics",
"electoral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8059,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}