Will a California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot by 2024? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026	2026-11-03	90.0%		—	$64K		A	`KXCABILLIONA…V03`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	ABC News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative has been officially held in California before Nov 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the referendum to be "officially held," voting must have commenced and concluded according to the established electoral process, votes must have been cast and are in the process of being counted or have been counted, and the referendum/ballot initiative must appear on official ballots distributed to eligible voters. Voting must have officially ended by the specified date for the market to resolve Yes. The following do NOT constitute "officially held": mere scheduling or announcement of the referendum for future voting, signature gathering or petition phases for ballot initiatives, court challenges or legal proceedings about the referendum, preliminary or unofficial results announcements, or recounts and post-election audits (the initial voting process determines resolution). The referendum must be officially held within the specified geographic area, which can range from supranational to local jurisdictions or even "none" for certain special cases.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC News"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcabillionairetax-26nov03.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcabillionairetax-26nov03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J12GRT1JJ4",
  "slug": "kxcabillionairetax-26nov03",
  "question": "Will a California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot by 2024?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "california-politics",
    "wealth-tax",
    "ballot-initiative",
    "2026-election",
    "billionaire-taxation"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 63534,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "ABC News",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →