Will two or more candidates advance from the California Congressional District 4 primary by the 2024 primary election date? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 99.8% | $632 | $12K | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…THO | ||
| Eric Jones · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 67.0% | $686 | $12K | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…JON | ||
| Sharon Brown · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 8.4% | $0 | $17 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…BRO | ||
| Mandy Ghusar · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 7.0% | — | $11 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…GHU | ||
| Laurie MacKenzie · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 7.0% | — | $4 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…MAC | ||
| Heath Fulkerson · Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primary? | 2026-11-03 | 3.4% | $5 | $12 | A | KXCA04PRIMAR…FUL |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca04primary-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxca04primary-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxca04primary-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3FZF66YJF9",
"slug": "kxca04primary-26",
"question": "Will two or more candidates advance from the California Congressional District 4 primary by the 2024 primary election date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-primary-elections",
"california-politics",
"2026-midterms",
"ca-04",
"election-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24654,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}