Who will win the California 1st congressional district special election? [ resolved 2026-06-14 ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Gallagher | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | $22 | $14K | A | KXCA01S-26JA…GAL | ||
| Mike McGuire | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | — | $9 | A | KXCA01S-26JA…MCG | ||
| Audrey Denney | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCA01S-26JA…DEN | ||
| Kyle Wilson | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXCA01S-26JA…WIL | ||
| Brian Dahle | 2026-06-14 | 0.0% | — | $28 | A | KXCA01S-26JA…DAH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mike McGuire wins the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs), then the market resolves to Yes.
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed
- in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed
- constitutional court venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Mike McGuire win the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs)? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Audrey Denney win the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs)? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kyle Wilson win the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs)? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| YES | Will James Gallagher win the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs)? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| NO | Will Brian Dahle win the CA-01 Special Election (including any runoffs)? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxca01s-26jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxca01s-26jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxca01s-26jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5B3ZNFVBF0",
"slug": "kxca01s-26jan01",
"question": "Who will win the California 1st congressional district special election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-politics",
"special-election",
"us-house-races",
"2027",
"congressional-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14016,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}