Will Bitcoin's price be above a specific level at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 20,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.8% | $6 | $6.4K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN….00 | ||
| 25,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.1% | $36 | $2.9K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 30,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.7% | $28 | $1.7K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 35,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.4% | $56 | $5.0K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 40,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.2% | $52 | $36K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 45,000 | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | $15 | $56K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 50,000 | 2027-01-01 | 5.2% | $120 | $98K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 55,000 | 2027-01-01 | 9.5% | $3.8K | $171K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 60,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.1% | $76 | $106K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 65,000 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $73 | $118K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 70,000 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $269 | $166K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 75,000 | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | $5 | $134K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 80,000 | 2027-01-01 | 8.2% | $114 | $158K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 85,000 | 2027-01-01 | 6.3% | $25 | $113K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 90,000 | 2027-01-01 | 5.5% | $11 | $93K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 95,000 | 2027-01-01 | 4.7% | $120 | $44K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 100,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | $12 | $10K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 105,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.1% | $71 | $9.1K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 110,000 | 2027-01-01 | 2.7% | $9 | $4.3K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 115,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.6% | $134 | $3.0K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 120,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.6% | $81 | $2.7K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 125,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.4% | $109 | $2.6K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 130,000 | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | $12 | $1.8K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 135,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.9% | $57 | $1.6K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 140,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.7% | $4 | $1.3K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| 145,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.6% | $0 | $1.2K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 | ||
| ≥ 150,000 | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $2 | $87K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN….99 | ||
| 150,000 | 2027-01-01 | 0.6% | $0 | $1.4K | A | KXBTCY-27JAN…500 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is below 20000.00 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcy-27jan0100/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcy-27jan0100.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcy-27jan0100") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0WKFGLC4Y3",
"slug": "kxbtcy-27jan0100",
"question": "Will Bitcoin's price be above a specific level at the end of 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"eoy-2026",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1434585,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}