Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026	2027-01-01	24.1%		$1.6K	$43K		C	`KXBTCVSGOLD-26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	CoinGecko	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The performance of gold will be determined by using ICE Data Service's prices provided by a variety of financial institutions. The performance of Bitcoin will be determined by using the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "CoinGecko"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcvsgold-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcvsgold-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcvsgold-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
  "slug": "kxbtcvsgold-26",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "bitcoin-vs-gold",
    "asset-performance",
    "cryptocurrency",
    "commodities",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 43301,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 77,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "CoinGecko",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →