BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026 [ resolved 2026-09-01 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $42,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $20 | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $45,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $15 | $49 | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $47,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $30 | $289 | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $50,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $83 | $392 | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $52,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $269 | $1.6K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $55,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $4.6K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $57,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $10K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 | ||
| ≤ $60,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $15K | $27K | A | KXBTCMINMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever below $60000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is below the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $45000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $50000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $55000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $47500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $42500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $42.5K through August stays near full pricing Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder shows only 1% probability that BTC trimmed mean falls below $42,500 by August 31, a near-certain floor at current levels.
- The $115 million Coldcard hack and 28,000 BTC returning to exchanges are bearish supply-side signals, yet the ladder's floor pricing is not reflecting acute downside risk.
- The upper-bound ladder (CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22) shows only 28% probability BTC trades above $67,500 by month-end, capping the range implied by the two ladders at roughly $42,500-$67,500.
- Bitcoin spot price cited in Story 31 at $64,127 sits near the upper end of that range, consistent with the 28% probability of a breakout above $67,500.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcminmon-btc-26aug31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcminmon-btc-26aug31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcminmon-btc-26aug31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9D8FRK3QR0",
"slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26aug31",
"question": "BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price-floor",
"crypto-volatility",
"august-2026",
"price-prediction",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44652,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF BRTI price for BTC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}