Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-31 (180D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000 | 2027-01-31 | 13.0% | $302 | $162K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $110,000 | 2027-01-31 | 7.0% | $16 | $38K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $120,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | $10 | $26K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $130,000 | 2027-01-31 | 5.0% | — | $21K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $140,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $11K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | — | $16K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 | ||
| ≥ $200,000 | 2027-01-31 | 3.0% | $0 | $24K | A | KXBTCMAXY-26….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
recent wire items
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Ladder puts only 12% odds on Bitcoin exceeding $99,999 by December 31, 2026, with 6% at $110K and near-negligible probability beyond that.
- Bitcoin trading near $76,000 with Binance EU closures adding pressure is consistent with the ladder's heavily left-skewed distribution.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Bitcoin outperforming Gold in 2026 sits at 40%, suggesting markets see a path to relative strength even without a six-figure breakout.
- Resolves via CF Benchmarks end-of-year price; Binance EU disruption could affect exchange-based price aggregation used in settlement.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot after selloff Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices only 11% above $100K, 4% above $110K, and 2% above $120K or higher, placing the year-end $100K threshold firmly in long-shot territory.
- Bitcoin's drop from above $80K to near $75.5K as reported is directionally consistent with the ladder's low probability on a $100K year-end outcome.
- Volume on the ladder surged 201.9x day over day, the second-largest spike in this dataset, reflecting heavy repositioning after the crypto liquidation event.
- Kalshi (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) prices only 5% on Bitcoin setting a minimum price of $1 at or above its current level by January 1, 2027, suggesting year-end floor risk is also being priced.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end slips to long-shot odds Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's ladder puts Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at just 13%, with volume up 19,555% day-over-day, a 196.6x surge in trading activity.
- Bitcoin fell below $77,000 following the Binance hack; the ladder's distribution collapses sharply above $100K, with $110K at 6% and $120K at 3%.
- The 196.6x volume spike is the strongest signal in this batch that the hack triggered a decisive repricing of year-end Bitcoin upside targets.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9) on Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 sits at 42%, the Binance shock is putting that thesis under pressure.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder puts 15% odds on Bitcoin above $100K by December 31, 2026, with probabilities falling sharply above that level.
- Bitcoin near $77K at the time of reporting, roughly 30% below the $100K strike, is consistent with the market's long-shot pricing for a year-end breakout.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 19,555% day-over-day (196x), a very strong signal that the Binance hack and price drop are driving fresh contract activity.
- The Kalshi Bitcoin minimum price contract (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) at 5% for a high minimum price by January 1, 2027, cross-confirms the bearish near-term read.
- Bitcoin above $100K by year-end draws fresh attention near 20 percent Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder prices 20% on Bitcoin exceeding $99,999.99 by December 31, 2026, with trading volume up 5,925% day over day.
- Bitcoin's intraday rebound toward $81,000-$82,000 and the 60x volume surge in the year-end $100K contract signal that the rally is drawing fresh speculative positioning.
- The ladder shows probability collapsing sharply above $100K: 20% at the $100K threshold, 9% at $110K, and 5% at $120K, implying limited conviction in a sustained breakout.
- The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin's minimum price reaching a floor by January 1, 2027 (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) at 5% provides a downside anchor for comparison against the $100K upside tail.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxy-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
"question": "Bitcoin maximum price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"2026-resolution",
"btc-usd"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 297449,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "BRTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}