BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026 [ resolved 2026-09-01 ]
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $65,000 | 2026-08-07 | 100.0% | $15K | $83K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $67,500 | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $13K | $44K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $70,000 | 2026-08-20 | 100.0% | $1.4K | $21K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $72,500 | 2026-08-20 | 100.0% | $608 | $4.4K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $75,000 | 2026-08-21 | 100.0% | $780 | $8.0K | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $77,500 | 2026-08-21 | 100.0% | $45 | $465 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $80,000 | 2026-08-25 | 100.0% | $118 | $580 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $82,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $12 | $154 | A | KXBTCMAXMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $
65000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF BRTI price for BTC. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-25 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-21 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-20 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| YES | Will BTC trimmed mean be above $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- BTC above $80K by Aug 31 draws near-certain odds 99% · $265K 24h
- Kalshi prices near-certainty (99%) that BTC trimmed mean stays above $80K through Aug 31.
- 24h volume of $265K equals 33% of all-time, a heavy single-day commitment in a shallow book.
- With six days to expiry, fresh capital is pressing into a bet that has almost no room left to move.
- Resolves 11:59 PM ET Aug 31, 2026; near-zero implied miss risk leaves almost all value in theta decay.
- BTC above $80K by Aug 31 stays the favored side 64% · $144K 24h
- Kalshi prices 64%, market leans BTC holds above $80K through month-end.
- 24h volume $144K is 50% of all-time, marking a decisive mid-contract liquidity event.
- Nine days to expiry; August 31 deadline compresses time, lifting urgency to take positions.
- Resolves 11:59 PM ET Aug 31 on trimmed-mean BTC price.
- BTC above $82.5K by Aug 31 sits at a coin-flip, 47% 47% · $61K 24h
- At 47%, the $82.5K strike is priced as essentially a coin-flip, the most uncertain of the August BTC ladder.
- 24h volume of $61K is 53% of all-time, confirming meaningful fresh commitment despite the binary uncertainty.
- This strike marks the upper-bound stress test; combined with 67% at $80K, the curve implies limited upside conviction above $82K.
- Resolves trimmed-mean 11:59 PM ET Aug 31; any BTC rally in the next 10 days would sharply re-price this contract.
- Traders back BTC staying above $80K through August 67% · $100K 24h
- 67% odds on Kalshi place BTC above $80K at month-end as the base case, not a stretch.
- 24h volume of $100K equals 66% of all-time, signaling this contract is newly active with concentrated fresh interest.
- The $80K level sits roughly in the middle of current BTC trading range, making this the market's clearest directional read.
- Resolves trimmed-mean Aug 31; pairs naturally with the $77.5K and $82.5K strikes bracketing trader positioning.
- BTC above $77.5K by Aug 31 draws heavy backing at 82% 82% · $135K 24h
- At 82%, Kalshi traders assign strong probability Bitcoin holds above $77.5K through month-end.
- 24h volume of $135K represents 65% of all-time, the bulk of this contract's liquidity landed today.
- With 10 days to expiry and Bitcoin currently well above the strike, fresh volume may reflect confirmation-buying or late hedging.
- Resolves 11:59 PM ET Aug 31 on trimmed-mean price; a sharp BTC drawdown is the primary scenario threatening this outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22",
"slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
"question": "BTC trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"august-2026",
"crypto-markets",
"price-prediction",
"intramonth-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 161928,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF BRTI price for BTC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}