Bitcoin price in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-05-31 | 1.0% | — | $37K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-06-30 | 1.0% | — | $64K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-07-31 | 1.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-08-31 | 1.0% | $614 | $8.8K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2026-10-01 | 1.0% | $202 | $8.9K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 | ||
| ≥ $150,000 | 2027-01-31 | 4.0% | $1.5K | $33K | A | KXBTCMAX150-….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by May 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Contract is settled by taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used 24/7 to resolve the contract.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Jun 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET? | kalshi | 2026-07-09 | 1% |
| NO | When will Bitcoin hit $150k? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcmax150-25/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcmax150-25 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcmax150-25") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GGYFRW54C0",
"slug": "kxbtcmax150-25",
"question": "Bitcoin price in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"crypto-markets",
"price-milestone",
"2026",
"technical-levels"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 155873,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/BRTI?ref=blog.cfbenchmarks.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}