Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 49.0% | $249 | $44K | A | KXBTC50VS100…C31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market tracks whether the cryptocurrency price reaches the first threshold before the second threshold. "Reaches" means the price touches or falls below $50,000 (the lower threshold) OR touches or rises above $100,000 (the upper threshold). The first threshold reached determines the outcome. Price is measured using the CF Real-Time Index, taking a simple average over any 60-second period. If $50,000 is reached first, the market resolves to Yes. If $100,000 is reached first, the market resolves to No. If neither threshold is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to No. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- CF Benchmarks source of record venue-listed
- CF Real-Time Index from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtc50vs100-btc-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtc50vs100-btc-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbtc50vs100-btc-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-82NB0PNHT1",
"slug": "kxbtc50vs100-btc-26dec31",
"question": "Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin-price",
"milestone-race",
"crypto-volatility",
"binary-outcome",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44411,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/DOTUSD_RTI",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/data/indices/DOTUSD_RTI",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF Real-Time Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}