Will the second-place finisher in Brazil's presidential election first round be determined by DATE? [ resolves 2027-10-04 (488D) ]
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 47.0% | $5 | $7.5K | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…BOL | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026… | 2027-10-04 | 43.0% | — | $841 | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…SIL | ||
| Will Romeu Zema finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 16.0% | $2 | $90 | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…ZEM | ||
| Will Renan Santos finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 13.0% | $28 | $72 | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…SAN | ||
| Will Aldo Rebelo finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…REB | ||
| Will Ciro Gomes finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…GOM | ||
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…BOL | ||
| Will Fernando Haddad finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…HAD | ||
| Will Jair Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…BOL | ||
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…BOL | ||
| Will Ratinho Júnior finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…JUN | ||
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…CAI | ||
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2027-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXBRPRESIDEN…FRE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Aldo Rebelo finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place)
For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals
For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K4G2KNQFY8",
"slug": "kxbrpresident2-brpres26-2",
"question": "Will the second-place finisher in Brazil's presidential election first round be determined by DATE?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"first-round",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8534,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}