Will the first round winner of the Brazil presidential election be determined by DATE? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 67.0% | — | $5.5K | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…SIL | ||
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 24.0% | $81 | $3.1K | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…BOL | ||
| Will Fernando Haddad win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 18.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…HAD | ||
| Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 10.0% | — | $191 | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…SAN | ||
| Will Romeu Zema win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 2026-10-04 | 3.0% | — | $38 | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…ZEM | ||
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $0 | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…CAI | ||
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | — | $0 | C | KXBRPRES1R-2…FRE |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrpres1r-26oct04.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrpres1r-26oct04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NWN8Q06H64",
"slug": "kxbrpres1r-26oct04",
"question": "Will the first round winner of the Brazil presidential election be determined by DATE?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"presidential-election",
"first-round-outcome",
"2027",
"electoral-mechanism"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10008,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}