Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election | 2026-10-04 | 97.6% | — | $1.6K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RSAN | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 78.0% | — | $43K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-LULA | ||
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 76.0% | $9 | $19K | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-FBOL | ||
| Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election | 2026-10-04 | 11.0% | — | $853 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-JB | ||
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 5.0% | — | $287 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-TFRI | ||
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential… | 2026-10-04 | 4.3% | — | $0 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-EBOL | ||
| Will Ratinho Júnior be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election | 2026-10-04 | 1.2% | — | $111 | A | KXBRBALLOT-26-RJUN |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Brazilian government | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Brazilian government" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrballot-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrballot-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrballot-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GZ95QDFPN6",
"slug": "kxbrballot-26",
"question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazilian-politics",
"presidential-election",
"2026-election",
"candidate-announcement",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 64813,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Brazilian government",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tse.jus.br/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}