Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election | 2026-10-04 | 80.0% | — | $7.1K | C | KXBRAZILSENA…-PL | ||
| Will Workers' Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election | 2026-10-04 | 7.4% | — | $2 | C | KXBRAZILSENA…-PT | ||
| Will Brazilian Democratic Movement win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election | 2026-10-04 | 2.0% | — | $0 | C | KXBRAZILSENA…MDB | ||
| Will Brazil Union win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election | 2026-10-04 | 2.0% | — | $0 | C | KXBRAZILSENA…IAO | ||
| Will Social Democratic Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXBRAZILSENA…PSD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Liberal Party wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
Partial elections: Only seats/positions actually contested in the specified election count
If a formal pre-election coalition wins the most seats, the contract for that coalition resolves to Yes, while contracts for its individual member parties (if also listed) resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbrazilsenate-26oct04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbrazilsenate-26oct04.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbrazilsenate-26oct04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRRTJHQJ11",
"slug": "kxbrazilsenate-26oct04",
"question": "Will Liberal Party win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil-politics",
"senate-elections",
"2026-election",
"political-parties",
"latin-america"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7132,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}