Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (577D) ]

Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028?

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before…	2028-01-01	78.0%		—	$4.1K		B	`KXBOUGAINVIL…N01`
Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027	2028-01-01	31.0%		—	$1.7K		B	`KXBOUGAINVIL…N01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	The Washington Post	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 2 markets · share this text

If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post"

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbougainvilleind/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbougainvilleind.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxbougainvilleind")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M80F0W2DD3",
  "slug": "kxbougainvilleind",
  "question": "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "papua-new-guinea",
    "bougainville",
    "independence",
    "political-sovereignty",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5807,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →