Will there be a Democratic gain of at least 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (243D) ]

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND…	2027-02-01	66.0%		$2.1K	$160K		A	`KXBLUEWAVECO…FEB`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bureau of Labor Statistics	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxbluewavecombo-27feb")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "question": "Will there be a Democratic gain of at least 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterms-2026",
    "democratic-performance",
    "house-seats",
    "election-outcomes",
    "political-wave"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 160349,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →