Will there be a blue wave in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND… | 2027-02-01 | 75.0% | $2.4K | $252K | C | KXBLUEWAVECO…FEB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3)
Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Blue wave in 2026 nears full pricing after Democratic sweep Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices 99% on a blue wave in 2026, essentially fully resolved after NBC's projection of a Democratic sweep of Congress.
- News of Democrats flipping control of both chambers is consistent with the near-certain pricing; the market led or ran concurrent with election-night calls.
- Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-64KY3VMH10) prices Trump impeachment at only 2%, suggesting markets see the new Democratic Congress as a check but not a removal vehicle.
- Resolution source is Bureau of Labor Statistics per the Kalshi contract metadata, though standard blue-wave resolution would typically reference official certified election results.
- Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue wave at 99%, reflecting near-certainty after Democrat wins across multiple projected races.
- NBC News projections of Democratic control of both chambers are consistent with the near-100% Kalshi read; the market had already moved well ahead of full call confirmations.
- ABC News separately reported Democrats are projected to take both the Senate and House, reinforcing the Kalshi pricing.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, an unusual resolver for an election outcome; resolution mechanics warrant monitoring for any definitional edge case.
- Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue wave contract at 99%, consistent with reported Democratic sweeps of both House and Senate.
- Multiple news outlets confirm Democrats flipped control of both chambers, making this contract effectively settled in the market.
- The 99% price leaves a residual 1% tail likely reflecting resolution-mechanic uncertainty, not genuine outcome doubt.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the provided source, though the actual outcome determination is electoral; traders should note the named resolver.
- Traders pile into Democrats holding 218+ House seats at 99% 99% · $3.3M 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats holding 218 or more seats in the House at 99%, near-certain majority status.
- 27% of all-time contract volume, $3.3M, executed in one day, reflecting maximum Election Day conviction.
- Live House race results rolling in are collapsing uncertainty and crowding capital to the 'yes' side.
- Resolves once certified seat totals confirm the 218-seat threshold is met or missed.
- Democrats holding 218+ House seats trades to certainty 100% · $5.9M 24h
- Kalshi prices Democratic House majority threshold at 100%, the market has closed on this outcome.
- 53% of all-time volume, $5.9M, printed in 24h as results sharpen on Election Day.
- A 100% price implies call results are already sufficiently clear to erase residual doubt.
- Resolves once 218+ Democratic seats are certified in the 120th Congress.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbluewavecombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbluewavecombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
"slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
"question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms-2026",
"democratic-performance",
"house-seats",
"election-outcomes",
"political-wave"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 252496,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}