Will any bills become law in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for… | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | — | $6.7K | A | KXBILLS-FISAANY | ||
| Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing… | 2027-01-01 | 83.0% | — | $14K | A | KXBILLS-HOUS | ||
| Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying… | 2027-01-01 | 61.0% | — | $2.4K | A | KXBILLS-HRCA | ||
| Will legislation that provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for… | 2027-01-01 | 59.0% | — | $205 | A | KXBILLS-SURF | ||
| Will legislation principally aimed at strengthening federal efforts to protect… | 2027-01-01 | 56.0% | $3 | $45 | A | KXBILLS-JSEC | ||
| Will legislation that imposes an annual federal registration fee on electric… | 2027-01-01 | 55.0% | $2 | $169 | A | KXBILLS-EVFEE | ||
| Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of… | 2027-01-01 | 53.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXBILLS-DEFY | ||
| Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft… | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | — | $4.8K | A | KXBILLS-ROTOR | ||
| Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight… | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | — | $282 | A | KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL | ||
| Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to… | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | — | $5.0K | A | KXBILLS-MIN | ||
| Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for… | 2027-01-01 | 30.0% | $100 | $34K | A | KXBILLS-FISA | ||
| Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on… | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXBILLS-CHIP | ||
| Will legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for… | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $21 | A | KXBILLS-NIL | ||
| Will legislation that redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow… | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $3.1K | A | KXBILLS-SHOW | ||
| Will legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by… | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXBILLS-DRIVE | ||
| Will legislation that pairs enhanced border security and mandatory E-Verify… | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $144 | A | KXBILLS-DIGNITY | ||
| Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing… | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXBILLS-DATA | ||
| Will legislation that allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by… | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $303 | A | KXBILLS-E15 | ||
| Will legislation that extends Section 181 expensing for film and television… | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXBILLS-TV | ||
| Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory… | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXBILLS-AIO | ||
| Will legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered… | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXBILLS-CCR | ||
| Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential… | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $873 | A | KXBILLS-BALL | ||
| Will legislation that renames Washington Dulles International Airport after… | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $216 | A | KXBILLS-AIRP | ||
| Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to… | 2027-01-01 | 8.2% | — | $957 | A | KXBILLS-250C | ||
| Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the… | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | — | $413 | A | KXBILLS-SMITH | ||
| Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J.… | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $56 | A | KXBILLS-DJTB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An example of this is S.Amdt. 2229 to S. 1582 — “Credit Card Competition Act of 2025.”
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify.
Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbills/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbills.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbills") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XJ11K05DW7",
"slug": "kxbills",
"question": "Will any bills become law in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-legislation",
"2026-legislative-outcomes",
"bill-enactment",
"congress-policy",
"legislative-success"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 84350,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}