Which bills will become law in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| That would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development | 2027-01-01 | 99.9% | — | $203K | B | KXBILLS-HOUS | ||
| That reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for any length of time | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | — | $6.7K | A | KXBILLS-FISAANY | ||
| That conditions eligibility for Department of Defense contracts on covered contractors refraining from stock buybacks | 2027-01-01 | 81.0% | — | $4 | B | KXBILLS-BBAC | ||
| That provides multi-year reauthorization and funding for federal surface transportation programs through the Highway Trust Fund and general fund appropriations | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $3.5K | B | KXBILLS-SURF | ||
| That requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | $11 | $2.9K | B | KXBILLS-CHIP | ||
| That bars government agencies or private entities from using ADS-B aircraft-tracking data to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue from the aircraft owner or operator without consent | 2027-01-01 | 27.0% | — | $83 | B | KXBILLS-ADSB | ||
| That subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | — | $1.3K | B | KXBILLS-AIO | ||
| Principally aimed at strengthening federal efforts to protect Jewish Americans from antisemitism, including through civil-rights enforcement, physical security support, threat monitoring, or online-platform transparency | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $165 | $1.1K | B | KXBILLS-JSEC | ||
| That mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $3.1K | B | KXBILLS-ROTOR | ||
| That establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $2.8K | B | KXBILLS-MIN | ||
| That creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | $301 | $3.5K | B | KXBILLS-DEFY | ||
| That establishes a federal intellectual-property right protecting individuals’ voices and visual likenesses from unauthorized digital replicas | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $70 | B | KXBILLS-FAKES | ||
| Principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $302 | $1.5K | B | KXBILLS-NIL | ||
| Principally aimed at curbing federal coercion of speech intermediaries (social media platforms, AI systems, broadcasters), including through a private right of action against agencies or officials, monetary damages, or mandatory disclosure of government-to-platform communications | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $248 | B | KXBILLS-26-JAWB | ||
| That reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $24K | B | KXBILLS-FISA | ||
| That imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $994 | B | KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL | ||
| > 40 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $526 | B | KXBILLS-26JU…LIN | ||
| That prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $1.4K | B | KXBILLS-DATA | ||
| That amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $3.1K | B | KXBILLS-HRCA | ||
| That allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by extending the Clean Air Act Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to ethanol blends up to 15% | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $2.2K | B | KXBILLS-E15 | ||
| That imposes an annual federal registration fee on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the revenue dedicated to the Highway Trust Fund | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $630 | B | KXBILLS-EVFEE | ||
| That extends Section 181 expensing for film and television productions | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $1.3K | B | KXBILLS-TV | ||
| That would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary | 2027-01-01 | 7.8% | — | $1.7K | B | KXBILLS-250C | ||
| That authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $876 | B | KXBILLS-BALL | ||
| That changes the official name of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Fort Liberty | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $520 | B | KXBILLS-BRAGG | ||
| That renames Washington Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | — | $1.7K | B | KXBILLS-AIRP | ||
| That pairs enhanced border security and mandatory E-Verify with asylum system reforms and an earned legal status program (without a path to citizenship) for certain long-term undocumented immigrants | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $845 | B | KXBILLS-DIGNITY | ||
| That requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | — | $809 | B | KXBILLS-CCR | ||
| That authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve | 2027-01-01 | 3.6% | — | $314 | B | KXBILLS-SMITH | ||
| That designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees | 2027-01-01 | 2.3% | — | $486 | B | KXBILLS-DJTB | ||
| That redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow multi-nozzle systems | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $429 | B | KXBILLS-SHOW | ||
| That preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems | 2027-01-01 | 1.8% | — | $432 | B | KXBILLS-DRIVE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification: 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)' (KXBILLS-FISA) resolves to Yes only if FISA Section 702 is reauthorized for exactly two years, as in the provided example (Public Law 118-49). A reauthorization for any other duration would not qualify.
Clarification: To be clear, legislation that appropriates funds for security adjustments and upgrades relating to the East Wing Modernization Project, a project that includes the construction of a presidential ballroom, constitutes legislation that "authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom," even if the funds are restricted to security elements of that construction.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · single authority
- White House venue-listed
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbills/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbills |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbills") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XJ11K05DW7",
"slug": "kxbills",
"question": "Which bills will become law in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-legislation",
"2026-policy",
"law-passage",
"congress",
"regulatory-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 271804,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}