Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-02 ]
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | $2.0K | $878K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DD | ||
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 39.0% | $776 | $679K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 15.0% | $8.2K | $519K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 1.5% | $1 | $25K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays favored Kalshi 70%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 70% odds on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- The NBC poll showing a 7-point Democratic lead in the generic ballot is a bearish signal for Republicans, yet Kalshi's 70% reflects a market that is not fully accepting the poll's implied Democratic sweep.
- Winning at least one chamber is a lower bar than winning both; the 70% likely reflects Senate map advantages for Republicans even as the House leans Democratic.
- The Polymarket Senate contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices at 73% for a Republican Senate win, consistent with the Kalshi reading and suggesting the Senate is carrying most of the GOP's one-chamber probability.
- Republicans retaining at least one chamber stays near 75% Kalshi 70%
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the midterms sits at 70%.
- Election-day is days away; the 70% reading reflects a market that favors GOP retention of at least one chamber but does not treat it as a near-certainty.
- The companion Kalshi contract on the Democratic Party winning the U.S. House (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) sits at 94%, implying the market sees Democrats flipping the House as very likely while Republicans hold the Senate.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics per the contract terms, an unusual resolution source for an electoral question; traders should note this potential ambiguity.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber after midterms near 63 percent Kalshi 63%
- Kalshi prices 63% on Republicans retaining control of at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, resolving via the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Trump's effort to influence voting rules via courts adds legal uncertainty heading into Election Day; the 63% pricing suggests the market sees a Republican majority as more likely than not but far from certain.
- Democrats leading national polls, as noted in Al Jazeera's midterm coverage, is consistent with the contract sitting below 75%, reflecting a genuine competitive race.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) at 74% trades above the chamber-control contract, implying the market sees the gubernatorial map as more favorable Republican territory than Congress.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays above 50 percent Kalshi 63%
- The Kalshi contract prices 63% odds that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- News of Trump crisscrossing the country amid reported GOP midterm woes leaves the market modestly favoring a partial Republican hold, not a sweep or wipeout.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6 puts 74% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats, suggesting the market sees the gubernatorial map as friendlier to the GOP than the legislative one.
- Kalshi contract resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics designation; any chamber split or tie scenario could create resolution complexity.
- Republican Chamber control after midterms holds near 63 percent Kalshi 63%
- Kalshi prices 63% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms.
- ABC News reports high early-voting turnout with competitive Senate and House races, consistent with a market that sees GOP control as more likely than not but far from certain.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) prices 73% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats, suggesting markets see GOP strength more clearly at the state than federal level.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics designation as named resolution source; settlement follows official certified election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbalancepowercombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
"slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
"question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms",
"congress-control",
"house-senate",
"2026-elections",
"balance-of-power"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2101223,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}