Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 45.0% | $2.0K | $878K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DD | ||
| Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 39.0% | $776 | $679K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-DR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Republican | 2027-02-01 | 15.0% | $8.2K | $519K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RR | ||
| Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic | 2027-02-01 | 1.5% | $1 | $25K | A | KXBALANCEPOW…-RD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Republicans holding at least one chamber after midterms near 50 percent Kalshi 53%
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the 2026 midterms is priced at 53%, resolving via the Bureau of Labor Statistics electoral record.
- Seven Republican defections on the Iran war powers vote signal intra-party fractures that could weigh on GOP House majority prospects heading into November.
- The near-50% pricing reflects genuine midterm uncertainty; the Iran defections are one data point among many the market is weighing.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Trump declaring election interference a national emergency sits at 19%, suggesting markets do not yet see the post-election environment as highly contested.
- Republicans holding a chamber after midterms near 50% Kalshi 51%
- Kalshi prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms at 51%, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics, effectively a coin flip.
- The Supreme Court blocking mail ballot restrictions removes a procedural advantage Republicans sought, consistent with the market sitting near 50% rather than favoring the incumbent party.
- Polymarket's Senate control contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) sits at 54% for Republicans and House control (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 88%, the spread reveals the House is seen as safe while the Senate is the swing.
- Resolution uses Bureau of Labor Statistics as the named source, which is atypical for an electoral outcome, readers should note the resolution mechanic as listed.
- Republican control of one chamber sits near 50% Kalshi 48%
- Kalshi prices Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the 2026 midterms at 48%, near a coin flip, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- GOP incumbents betting on Trump proximity as a turnout driver, but the near-50% market price suggests the strategy has not yet shifted the macro odds.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships sits at 60%, suggesting the party's structural strength is more durable at the state level than in Congress.
- Trump and Musk super PAC spending (Story 19) adds resource context, but the 48% Congressional control price reflects that spending alone has not moved consensus.
- Republican midterm control odds hold near 50% Kalshi 48%
- Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the 2026 midterms sits at 48%, just below even.
- Trump's Dallas rally and super PAC mobilization are hawkish signals for GOP turnout, yet the market is not moving the needle past 50%.
- The $5,000-per-adult payment pledge and Obamacare rebate checks signal an economic message strategy, but the market is effectively calling the race a coin flip.
- Kalshi resolution source is listed as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may reflect a data-feed artifact; traders should verify the actual resolution mechanic.
- Republicans holding at least one chamber stays near 50-50 Kalshi 47%
- Kalshi prices 47% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterms, effectively a coin flip.
- Massive super PAC spending from Trump and Musk allies is the news catalyst, but at 47% the market is not yet pricing it as a decisive Republican advantage.
- A companion Kalshi contract prices 57% on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms, suggesting the market sees GOP strength at the state level as more likely than in Congress.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per contract terms; in practice settlement follows certified midterm election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbalancepowercombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbalancepowercombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
"slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
"question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterms",
"congress-control",
"house-senate",
"2026-elections",
"balance-of-power"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2101223,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}