Will the Republican nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district be determined by the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-07-22 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Feely | 2026-07-22 | 100.0% | — | $6.1K | A | KXAZ01R-26-JFEE | ||
| Matt Gress | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXAZ01R-26-MGRE | ||
| Jason Duey | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | $0 | $14 | A | KXAZ01R-26-JDUE | ||
| Joseph Chaplik | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXAZ01R-26-JCHA | ||
| Gina Swoboda | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $4 | A | KXAZ01R-26-GSWO | ||
| Michelle Ugenti-Rita | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXAZ01R-26-MUGE | ||
| Todd Graham | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXAZ01R-26-TGRA | ||
| Kari Lake | 2026-07-22 | 0.0% | — | $1 | A | KXAZ01R-26-KLAK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Matt Gress wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party source of record venue-listed
- Democratic Party venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 0% |
| YES | Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-1? | kalshi | 2026-07-22 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Jay Feely's Republican AZ-01 nomination trades at certainty 100% · $27K 24h
- Kalshi prices Jay Feely's Republican nomination at 100%, no probability of another outcome remains.
- 24h volume of $27K is 46% of all-time, compressing into a fully-resolved market stance.
- Volume at ceiling likely reflects last participants closing opposing legs after a definitive result.
- Resolves on official GOP nominee certification for Arizona's 1st congressional district.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaz01r-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaz01r-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaz01r-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3YB040ZX15",
"slug": "kxaz01r-26",
"question": "Will the Republican nominee for Arizona's 1st congressional district be determined by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"2026-election",
"arizona",
"republican-primary",
"house-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7893,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}