Will the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 1st Congressional District be determined by November 2, 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-23 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amish Shah | 2026-07-23 | 100.0% | — | $6.7K | A | KXAZ01D-25-ASHA | ||
| Jonathan Treble | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXAZ01D-25-JTRE | ||
| Marlene Galán-Woods | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXAZ01D-25-MGAL | ||
| Rick McCartney | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | — | $0 | A | KXAZ01D-25-RMCC | ||
| Mark Robert Gordon | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | — | $3 | A | KXAZ01D-25-MGOR | ||
| Andrei Cherny | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | — | $5 | A | KXAZ01D-25-ACHE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jonathan Treble wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 AZ-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" sources (2) · single authority
- Republican Party venue-listed
- Democratic Party source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Jonathan Treble be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| YES | Will Amish Shah be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 100% |
| NO | Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Rick McCartney be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mark Robert Gordon be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Andrei Cherny be the Democratic nominee for AZ-01? | kalshi | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Betting locks in Amish Shah as the AZ-01 Democratic pick 97% · $46K 24h
- Kalshi prices Shah at 97%, market treats the Democratic nomination as effectively settled.
- 24h volume of $46K is 49% of all-time, signaling a concentrated rush of fresh conviction.
- Surge likely reflects a filing deadline, withdrawal, or endorsement removing remaining challengers.
- Resolves on official Democratic nominee certification for Arizona's 1st congressional district.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaz01d-25/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaz01d-25 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaz01d-25") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9M4QR764Y3",
"slug": "kxaz01d-25",
"question": "Will the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 1st Congressional District be determined by November 2, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"arizona-politics",
"2026-election",
"democratic-nominee",
"congressional-race",
"primary-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10843,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Democratic Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Republican Party",
"url": "https://gop.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Democratic Party",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}