Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 25 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
James Comey	2027-01-01	99.4%	—	$1.13M	C	`KXARREST-27J…COM`
John Brennan	2027-01-01	36.0%	$342	$48K	B	`KXARREST-27J…BRE`
Mahmoud Khalil	2027-01-01	21.0%	—	$1.6K	B	`KXARREST-27J…KHA`
James Clapper	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$11K	B	`KXARREST-27J…CLA`
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero	2027-01-01	17.0%	—	$1.9K	B	`KXARREST-27J…ZAP`
Letitia James	2027-01-01	16.0%	$7	$24K	B	`KXARREST-27J…JAM`
Susan Rice	2027-01-01	11.0%	—	$1.4K	B	`KXARREST-27J…RIC`
Brandon Johnson	2027-01-01	8.4%	—	$289	B	`KXARREST-27J…JOH`
Hillary Clinton	2027-01-01	8.2%	—	$11K	B	`KXARREST-27J…LIN`
Bill Clinton	2027-01-01	8.0%	—	$3.1K	B	`KXARREST-27J…LIN`
Tom Homan	2027-01-01	8.0%	$29	$671	B	`KXARREST-27J…HOM`
Loretta Lynch	2027-01-01	7.9%	—	$615	B	`KXARREST-27J…LYN`
Kash Patel	2027-01-01	7.7%	$0	$438	B	`KXARREST-27J…PAT`
John Kerry	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$461	B	`KXARREST-27J…KER`
Anthony Fauci	2027-01-01	6.4%	$4	$4.8K	B	`KXARREST-27J…FAU`
Lisa Cook	2027-01-01	6.2%	—	$1.7K	B	`KXARREST-27J…COO`
Gavin Newsom	2027-01-01	6.1%	$1	$2.3K	B	`KXARREST-27J…NEW`
Lee Jun-seok	2027-01-01	6.0%	—	$194	B	`KXARREST-27J…JUN`
Barack Obama	2027-01-01	6.0%	$76	$13K	B	`KXARREST-27JAN-BOM`
Adam Schiff	2027-01-01	6.0%	—	$3.0K	B	`KXARREST-27J…SCH`
Benjamin Netanyahu	2027-01-01	5.1%	—	$397	B	`KXARREST-27J…NET`
Candace Owens	2027-01-01	5.0%	$4	$99	B	`KXARREST-27J…OWE`
Pam Bondi	2027-01-01	4.9%	—	$578	B	`KXARREST-27J…BON`
Joe Biden	2027-01-01	4.0%	$0	$328	B	`KXARREST-27J…BID`
Lee Jae Myung	2027-01-01	4.0%	—	$15	B	`KXARREST-27J…JAE`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	CNBC	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 25 markets · share this text

If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "CNBC"

sources (13) · single authority

CNBC venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred source of record venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxarrest-27jan/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxarrest-27jan`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxarrest-27jan")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
  "slug": "kxarrest-27jan",
  "question": "Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "arrest-2026",
    "political-figure",
    "us-politics",
    "criminal-justice",
    "prediction-market"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 25,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1264257,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 71,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "CNBC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →