Will someone be arrested before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Comey be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 99.4% | — | $1.13M | B | KXARREST-27J…COM | ||
| Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 51.0% | $78 | $60K | B | KXARREST-27J…BRE | ||
| Will Letitia James be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 33.0% | $26 | $47K | B | KXARREST-27J…JAM | ||
| Will James Clapper be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 30.0% | $50 | $16K | B | KXARREST-27J…CLA | ||
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | — | $2.1K | B | KXARREST-27J…ZAP | ||
| Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $1.5K | B | KXARREST-27J…KHA | ||
| Will Lisa Cook be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $57 | $4.3K | B | KXARREST-27J…COO | ||
| Will Adam Schiff be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $5 | $7.6K | B | KXARREST-27J…SCH | ||
| Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $1.1K | B | KXARREST-27J…LYN | ||
| Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $381 | B | KXARREST-27J…JUN | ||
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $6 | $7.1K | B | KXARREST-27J…FAU | ||
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $0 | $606 | B | KXARREST-27J…NET | ||
| Will Tom Homan be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $244 | B | KXARREST-27J…HOM | ||
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $5 | $12K | B | KXARREST-27J…LIN | ||
| Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 8.6% | $6 | $16K | B | KXARREST-27JAN-BOM | ||
| Will Bill Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $2.9K | B | KXARREST-27J…LIN | ||
| Will Candace Owens be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $0 | $127 | B | KXARREST-27J…OWE | ||
| Will Joe Biden be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.2% | — | $386 | B | KXARREST-27J…BID | ||
| Will Susan Rice be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.1% | $0 | $753 | B | KXARREST-27J…RIC | ||
| Will Pam Bondi be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $663 | B | KXARREST-27J…BON | ||
| Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.3% | $0 | $338 | B | KXARREST-27J…KER | ||
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | $0 | $769 | B | KXARREST-27J…NEW | ||
| Will Kash Patel be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $0 | $217 | B | KXARREST-27J…PAT | ||
| Will Lee Jae Myung be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $15 | B | KXARREST-27J…JAE | ||
| Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 1.4% | — | $33 | B | KXARREST-27J…JOH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CNBC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CNBC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxarrest-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxarrest-27jan.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxarrest-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T101LW9G50",
"slug": "kxarrest-27jan",
"question": "Will someone be arrested before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"arrest",
"politics",
"2027",
"legal-jeopardy",
"us-political-figures",
"criminal-prosecution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1313135,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CNBC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}