Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-07 ]
Will Samuel Alito be out as before Jul 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retires the Supreme Court in before July | 2026-07-08 | 0.1% | — | $267 | A | KXALITOOUT-26JUL01 | ||
| Retires the Supreme Court in before September | 2026-09-08 | 2.9% | $144 | $9.3K | A | KXALITOOUT-26SEP01 | ||
| Retires the Supreme Court in before 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 12.0% | $210 | $31K | A | KXALITOOUT-27JAN01 | ||
| Be out as before Jul 1, 2027 | 2027-07-08 | 41.0% | $2 | $11K | A | KXALITOOUT-27JUL01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | person | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The resolution is based on the effective date of the resignation.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "person" sources (12) · single authority
- person venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- official government records and registries source of record venue-listed
- the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- the New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before July? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Flows test Alito retirement odds ahead of recess 34% · $47K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 34% probability that Justice Alito retires before end of 2026, meaningful tail.
- $47K in 24h equals 73% of all-time volume; contract is drawing concentrated fresh attention.
- SCOTUS summer recess is the natural window for retirement announcements, driving near-term focus.
- A 34% price reflects genuine uncertainty; desks should monitor for health or political disclosures.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxalitoout/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxalitoout |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxalitoout") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D6V79HLL45",
"slug": "kxalitoout",
"question": "Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-supreme-court",
"judicial-retirement",
"justice-alito",
"2026-resolution",
"political-succession"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51366,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "person",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "person",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government records and registries",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}