Alaska Governor-Senate combo [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 35.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXAKSENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 33.0% | $0 | $2.9K | C | KXAKSENGOVCO…REP | ||
| Republican party and Alaska Senate winner be Democratic | 2027-11-03 | 25.0% | — | $3.3K | C | KXAKSENGOVCO…DEM | ||
| Democratic party and Alaska Senate winner be Republican | 2027-11-03 | 8.0% | $64 | $438 | C | KXAKSENGOVCO…REP |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Alaska Governor winner: Democratic party, Alaska Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Alaska Governor winner (GOVPARTY), Alaska Senate winner (SENATEPARTY).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3)
Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Alaska Governor-Senate GOP combo stays near zero odds Kalshi 3%
- The Kalshi contract on a Republican Alaska Governor-Senate combo sits at just 3%, even as federal subpoenas roil the race.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 8,669% day over day, indicating the DOJ subpoenas and Peltola investigation headlines are drawing heavy market attention.
- Despite the political turbulence, the market is not repricing toward a Republican sweep in Alaska, the probability holds near zero.
- The Kalshi contract on a new senator being elected in Alaska (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) sits at 31%, suggesting the market sees some Democratic vulnerability but not a full Republican flip.
- Alaska governor-Senate split combo stays a long shot Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi prices the Alaska governor-Senate party-combo outcome at just 4%, keeping it a heavy long shot despite late-race drama.
- Trading volume on this Kalshi contract surged 8,669% day-over-day, signaling a sharp spike in attention around the DOJ subpoena and Peltola controversy.
- A separate Kalshi contract on Alaska electing a new senator sits at 31%, suggesting the market sees incumbent retention as more likely than a flip.
- Kalshi resolves via United States Congress certification of results; late-breaking DOJ subpoenas alone do not change the resolution mechanic.
- Alaska GOP governor-Senate sweep stays a long shot at 1 percent Kalshi 1%
- The Kalshi contract on a Republican Alaska governor-Senate combination prices at just 1%, a near-certain NO reading.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 15,247% day over day, a 153.5x spike, showing the investigation news drove immediate and significant fresh attention.
- Kalshi's separate contract on a new senator being elected to represent Alaska prices at 32%, suggesting the market sees a real possibility of Peltola defeating Murkowski but not the full GOP sweep.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics sourcing; the 1% contract price suggests the market views the governor investigation as noise rather than a decisive electoral shift.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaksengovcombo-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaksengovcombo-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaksengovcombo-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-09C696KZH3",
"slug": "kxaksengovcombo-26nov",
"question": "Alaska Governor-Senate combo",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"alaska-politics",
"governor-senate-combo",
"2026-elections",
"us-state-races",
"partisan-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7969,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}