Who will win the Alaska Senate election? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (98D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola win the | 2026-11-10 | 57.0% | $29 | $27K | A | KXAKSENATE-2…PEL | ||
| Dan Sullivan win the | 2026-11-10 | 44.0% | $945 | $23K | A | KXAKSENATE-2…SUL | ||
| Daniel J. Sullivan win | 2026-11-10 | 2.0% | — | $49 | A | KXAKSENATE-2…SUL | ||
| Ann Diener win the | 2026-11-10 | 0.9% | — | $71 | A | KXAKSENATE-2…DIE | ||
| Richard Grayson win the | 2026-11-10 | 0.1% | — | $6 | A | KXAKSENATE-2…GRA | ||
| Sid Hill win the | 2026-11-10 | 0.1% | — | $6 | A | KXAKSENATE-2…HIL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
- Dan Sullivan Alaska Senate odds collapse to 4% on fresh volume 4% · $19K 24h
- At 4%, Kalshi has effectively ruled out a Sullivan victory in the 2026 Alaska Senate race.
- $19K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume, meaningful fresh engagement on an extreme-probability contract.
- Volume at 4% pricing may reflect late hedging, closing positions, or a news event cementing the outcome.
- Resolution at the certified result of the 2026 Alaska Senate election.
- Betting backs Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate at 94% 94% · $230K 24h
- Kalshi prices Mary Peltola winning the Alaska Senate race at 94%, a strong individual-candidate conviction read.
- 31% of all-time contract volume, $229K, arrived in 24 hours, the heaviest single-day session on this market.
- Peltola pricing aligns tightly with the broader Democratic Alaska Senate contract at 95%, implying she is the consensus nominee and winner.
- Resolves on certified Peltola vote share; the 6% tail covers third-party, ranked-choice, or recount scenarios.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaksenate-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaksenate-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaksenate-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6KJ40RJZP3",
"slug": "kxaksenate-26nov03",
"question": "Who will win the Alaska Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"alaska-politics",
"electoral-prediction",
"politician-selection",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 50544,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}