Will AI capabilities grow significantly before July 2025? [ resolves 2026-07-02 (29D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1,525 | 2026-07-02 | 18.0% | $283 | $9.9K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1525 | ||
| ≥ 1,550 | 2026-07-02 | 6.0% | $28 | $3.5K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1550 | ||
| ≥ 1,575 | 2026-07-02 | 5.0% | $19 | $1.7K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1575 | ||
| ≥ 1,600 | 2026-07-02 | 5.0% | $8 | $1.1K | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1600 | ||
| ≥ 1,625 | 2026-07-02 | 5.0% | $2 | $520 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1625 | ||
| ≥ 1,650 | 2026-07-02 | 2.0% | — | $88 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1650 | ||
| ≥ 1,675 | 2026-07-02 | 1.0% | — | $54 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1675 | ||
| ≥ 1,700 | 2026-07-02 | 1.0% | $6 | $92 | A | KXAISPIKE-26B-1700 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaispike-26b/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaispike-26b.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaispike-26b") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZLG0HNV058",
"slug": "kxaispike-26b",
"question": "Will AI capabilities grow significantly before July 2025?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-capability",
"benchmark-performance",
"near-term-ai",
"2026",
"technology-milestone"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16848,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}