Will any AIPAC-endorsed candidates lose their primaries? [ resolves 2026-12-15 (195D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by strike

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 1	2026-12-15	99.0%	—	$2.0K	C	`KXAIPACLOSEP…-T1`
≥ 3	2026-12-15	99.0%	—	$11K	C	`KXAIPACLOSEP…-T3`
≥ 5	2026-12-15	71.0%	—	$1.7K	C	`KXAIPACLOSEP…-T5`
≥ 10	2026-12-15	25.0%	$3	$522	C	`KXAIPACLOSEP…T10`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the Statistical Review of World Energy	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If the number of AIPAC-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page (https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/). A candidate counts as endorsed only if they are listed on the page AND the page allows donations to them through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary (e.g., candidates who are retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise marked as non-donatable on the page — such as Cory Booker — are excluded). "Primary" includes runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries (e.g., California), and any election titled a primary. A candidate who withdraws before the primary is not counted as a loss; a candidate who advances past a top-two primary and then withdraws is counted as a loss. Only primaries held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 are included.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CYRWXHCJ44",
  "slug": "kxaipacloseprimary-26sep16",
  "question": "Will any AIPAC-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-elections",
    "aipac",
    "2026",
    "candidate-outcomes"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 15347,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 50,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →