Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

Will legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax…	2027-01-01	7.5%		$3	$18K		A	`KXACAEXT-26JAN-27`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If legislation extending or reinstating (if expired) enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (11/14/25): Any extension that continues the enhanced premium tax credits past this year qualifies for a Yes resolution, regardless of modifications to the extension's structure. This would include extensions that reduce the subsidy amounts or modify eligibility criteria. An extension of the credits for any length of time beyond the current expiration date is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"

sources (2) · single authority

White House venue-listed
Library of Congress source of record venue-listed

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxacaext-26jan/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxacaext-26jan`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxacaext-26jan")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KTGK2ZS346",
  "slug": "kxacaext-26jan",
  "question": "Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "aca-healthcare",
    "us-federal-legislation",
    "tax-credits",
    "healthcare-policy",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 17766,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "White House",
      "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Library of Congress",
      "url": "https://congress.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →