Will any additional countries normalize relations with Israel before 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel and Colombia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 71.0% | $246 | $9.2K | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…OLO | ||
| Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | $8 | $32K | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…N01 | ||
| Will Israel and Djibouti normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $132 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…JIB | ||
| Will Israel and Belize normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $78 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…ELI | ||
| Will Israel and Iran normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $3 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…RAN | ||
| Will Israel and Mauritania normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $59 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…AUR | ||
| Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $2 | $5.1K | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…LEB | ||
| Will Israel and Maldives normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | — | $19 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…ALD | ||
| Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $0 | $2.8K | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…SYR | ||
| Will Israel and Oman normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.1% | — | $883 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…MAN | ||
| Will Israel and Comoros normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 4.9% | — | $6 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…OMO | ||
| Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 3.6% | — | $560 | B | KXABRAHAMSA-…NDO |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxabrahamsa-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxabrahamsa-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxabrahamsa-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R0L07XMSG3",
"slug": "kxabrahamsa-27",
"question": "Will any additional countries normalize relations with Israel before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israel-normalization",
"middle-east-diplomacy",
"geopolitical-relations",
"bilateral-agreements",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 51075,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}