AAA national average gas price, August 17, 2026 [ resolved 2026-08-10 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 22 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $3.86 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $12K | $12K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…860 | ||
| ≥ $3.88 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $5.9K | $6.0K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…880 | ||
| ≥ $3.9 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $1.7K | $1.7K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…900 | ||
| ≥ $3.92 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $2.0K | $2.1K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…920 | ||
| ≥ $3.94 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $2.2K | $4.3K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…940 | ||
| ≥ $3.96 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $3.1K | $3.8K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…960 | ||
| ≥ $3.98 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $2.0K | $2.2K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…980 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-10 | 100.0% | $4.7K | $5.1K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…000 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $3.0K | $3.2K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…020 | ||
| ≥ $4.04 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $3.1K | $3.3K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…040 | ||
| ≥ $4.06 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $1.4K | $1.5K | A | KXAAAGASW-26…060 | ||
| ≥ $4.08 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $475 | $522 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…080 | ||
| ≥ $4.1 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $140 | $179 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…100 | ||
| ≥ $4.12 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $64 | $80 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…120 | ||
| ≥ $4.14 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $52 | $57 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…140 | ||
| ≥ $4.16 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $38 | $38 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…160 | ||
| ≥ $4.18 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $24 | $25 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…180 | ||
| ≥ $4.2 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $6 | $21 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…200 | ||
| ≥ $4.22 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $14 | $40 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…220 | ||
| ≥ $4.24 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $10 | $28 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…240 | ||
| ≥ $4.26 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $0 | $11 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…260 | ||
| ≥ $4.28 | 2026-08-10 | 0.0% | $3 | $21 | A | KXAAAGASW-26…280 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.860 on Aug 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
AAA committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.860? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.900? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.940? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.960? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $3.980? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.000? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 100% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.020? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.040? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.060? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.100? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.120? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.160? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.180? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.200? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.220? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.240? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.260? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will average **gas prices** be above $4.280? | kalshi | 2026-08-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (22 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gas above $4.00 stays a live bet at 82% 82% · $10K 24h
- Kalshi prices average gas above $4.00 at 82%, elevated conviction but with meaningful residual doubt at the round-dollar threshold.
- 24h volume of $10K is 30% of a $33K all-time pool, indicating a notable but not dominant single-day draw.
- The 18% against-probability at a psychologically significant level suggests traders are hedging against a sub-$4.00 average reading.
- Contract resolves against the same gas price benchmark as the $3.980 contract, one tick higher.
- Gas prices above $3.98 priced at 99% on Kalshi 99% · $13K 24h
- Kalshi prices average national gas above $3.980 at 99%, traders see the threshold as already cleared.
- 24h volume of $13K is 48% of all-time handle, pulling in fresh capital as the data window approaches close.
- At ceiling-adjacent pricing, the volume surge is likely late position-taking ahead of the official EIA or AAA price read.
- Contract resolves against the relevant weekly average gas price benchmark.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasw-26aug10/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasw-26aug10 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasw-26aug10") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FCL1JMT0V9",
"slug": "kxaaagasw-26aug10",
"question": "AAA national average gas price, August 17, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"us-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"weekly-resolution",
"economics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 22,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 45878,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}