Will gas prices in Texas reach a specific high level this year? [ resolves 2027-01 – 2027-01 ]
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 3.80 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $6.1K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 4.00 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $6.3K | C | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 | ||
| < 4.20 | 2027-01-07 | 69.0% | $20 | $7.9K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….20 | ||
| < 4.40 | 2027-01-07 | 48.0% | $75 | $6.5K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….40 | ||
| < 4.60 | 2027-01-07 | 43.0% | $43 | $4.3K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….60 | ||
| < 4.80 | 2027-01-07 | 36.0% | $235 | $2.4K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 5.00 | 2027-01-07 | 23.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 | ||
| < 5.20 | 2027-01-07 | 16.0% | $10 | $899 | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….20 | ||
| < 5.40 | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | — | $542 | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….40 | ||
| < 6.00 | 2027-01-07 | 10.0% | — | $227 | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….00 | ||
| < 5.80 | 2027-01-07 | 9.0% | — | $130 | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….80 | ||
| < 5.60 | 2027-01-07 | 3.0% | — | $27 | A | KXAAAGASMAXT….60 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for Texas are strictly greater than $4.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S7CTVTK5B0",
"slug": "kxaaagasmaxtx-26dec31",
"question": "Will gas prices in Texas reach a specific high level this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"gas-prices",
"texas",
"energy-commodities",
"2026",
"price-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 36560,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}