Will US gas prices be below $3.00 per gallon on Election Day? [ resolves 2026-11-10 (110D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $2.5 | 2026-11-10 | 94.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $2.75 | 2026-11-10 | 87.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-11-10 | 91.0% | $932 | $4.5K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 | ||
| ≥ $3.25 | 2026-11-10 | 74.0% | $522 | $10K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….25 | ||
| ≥ $3.5 | 2026-11-10 | 70.0% | $145 | $3.6K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $3.75 | 2026-11-10 | 43.0% | $599 | $6.4K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-11-10 | 70.0% | $87 | $6.0K | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 | ||
| ≥ $4.25 | 2026-11-10 | 13.0% | $157 | $563 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….25 | ||
| ≥ $4.5 | 2026-11-10 | 15.0% | $30 | $777 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….50 | ||
| ≥ $4.75 | 2026-11-10 | 10.0% | $20 | $111 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….75 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2026-11-10 | 6.0% | $8 | $120 | A | KXAAAGASED-2….00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
- AAA source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagased-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagased-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagased-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6",
"slug": "kxaaagased-26nov03",
"question": "Will US gas prices be below $3.00 per gallon on Election Day?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"2026-election",
"energy-commodities",
"us-economy",
"november-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 37901,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}