Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $177 | $48K | C | KX14AMENDCAS…AUG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Trump's Executive Order ending birthright citizenship comes into effect for any period after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Into effect" means that there are no federal courts prohibiting the order from going into effect. If the Executive Order is withdrawn, then the market immediately resolves to No. If the Supreme Court rules that the order is not constitutional, then the market immediately resolves to No (and the reverse if they rule that the order is constitutional).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (14)
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kx14amendcase-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kx14amendcase-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kx14amendcase-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JZ03HX93V0",
"slug": "kx14amendcase-26",
"question": "Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"immigration-policy",
"executive-orders",
"constitutional-law",
"trump-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 48338,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 43,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}