Will a Democrat win the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary by 2024? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (62D) ]
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 78.0% | $16 | $7.2K | C | 0xbe08ec…323f | ||
| Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 5.0% | $71 | $20K | C | 0xedd9fa…5fb2 | ||
| Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 3.2% | — | $34K | C | 0x7746b1…db24 | ||
| Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 2.0% | — | $5.4K | C | 0xde0722…5ee1 | ||
| Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 1.2% | — | $37K | C | 0x23138f…28e8 | ||
| Will Erik Murray be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.6% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x60bfff…aeaa | ||
| Will Kevin Latz be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.3% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x1f5948…4403 | ||
| Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $3.9K | C | 0x055f6d…8988 | ||
| Will Damon Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x6a59e5…57ac | ||
| Will Jason Hart be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $1.9K | C | 0xa2e087…0047 | ||
| Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $6 | $19K | C | 0x571b1b…fe01 | ||
| Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xb1491e…adcc | ||
| Will Candidate I be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfa754c…7cdb | ||
| Will Candidate K be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc13cb9…eb69 | ||
| Will Candidate M be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf439b1…9ea4 | ||
| Will Candidate O be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8100c8…c234 | ||
| Will Candidate J be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x58f98a…6928 | ||
| Will Candidate L be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e91ab…b40d | ||
| Will Candidate N be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8ecb6…5c02 | ||
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x26621d…c819 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas.
If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G6QSZJ9ZC2",
"slug": "kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary by 2024?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"primary-elections",
"kansas",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 133107,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}