Will the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary be won by the date of the primary election? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton | 2026-08-04 | 95.0% | $2.7K | $23K | C | 0xbe08ec…323f | ||
| Sandy Spidel Neumann | 2026-08-04 | 3.2% | $151 | $37K | C | 0x7746b1…db24 | ||
| Christy Davis | 2026-08-04 | 2.5% | $138 | $39K | C | 0x23138f…28e8 | ||
| Patrick Schmidt | 2026-08-04 | 2.5% | $94 | $23K | C | 0xedd9fa…5fb2 | ||
| Anne Parelkar | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $20K | C | 0x571b1b…fe01 | ||
| Damon Anderson | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $76 | $1.9K | C | 0x6a59e5…57ac | ||
| Michael Soetaert | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $4.3K | C | 0x055f6d…8988 | ||
| Sharice Davids | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $149 | $6.1K | C | 0xde0722…5ee1 | ||
| Jason Hart | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $149 | $2.6K | C | 0xa2e087…0047 | ||
| Kevin Latz | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $91 | $2.2K | C | 0x1f5948…4403 | ||
| Erik Murray | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $149 | $2.3K | C | 0x60bfff…aeaa | ||
| Noah Taylor | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $61 | $2.3K | C | 0xb1491e…adcc | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfa754c…7cdb | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x58f98a…6928 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc13cb9…eb69 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e91ab…b40d | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf439b1…9ea4 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8ecb6…5c02 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8100c8…c234 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x26621d…c819 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas.
If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- the Kansas Democratic party from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G6QSZJ9ZC2",
"slug": "kansas-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Kansas Democratic Senate Primary be won by the date of the primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"primary-elections",
"kansas",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 162706,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Kansas Democratic party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}