Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026	2026-12-31	13.0%	—	$48K	C	`0x72f0b7…1c44`
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026	2026-12-31	3.6%	—	$119K	C	`0xc1a90c…7c45`
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$96K	C	`0xa4dc12…f6dc`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 3 markets · share this text

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TNM3W7MHZ5",
  "slug": "kadyrov-out-as-head-of-the-chechen-republic-by",
  "question": "Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "russian-politics",
    "chechen-republic",
    "leadership-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 262426,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 24,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →