Will there be a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 100% |
| NO | Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260607225939974/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260607225939974 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260607225939974") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q21DF9MZS2",
"slug": "israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20260607225939974",
"question": "Will there be a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"israel-lebanon",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 27264,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}