Will there be a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Hezbollah by the settlement date? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-06 | 0% |
| NO | Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
| NO | Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-04-27 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting pricing near zero amid fresh strikes Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices only 4% on a direct Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting occurring in 2026.
- Fresh strikes and casualties on both sides June 19 are consistent with the 4% price; active combat makes near-term diplomacy implausible.
- The companion Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting contract (CM-EVT-Q21DF9MZS2) prices 87%, showing the market distinguishes state-level from Hezbollah-level talks.
- The Israel withdrawal from Lebanon contract (CM-EVT-DYN9QZ3X25) prices 0%, confirming the market sees no offramp from the current military posture.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9Z1YP279S2",
"slug": "israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by",
"question": "Will there be a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Hezbollah by the settlement date?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-hezbollah",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 77344,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}