Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? [ resolves 2025-10 – 2026-06 ]
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31 | 2025-10-31 | 100.0% | — | $2.50M | C | 0x962c76…2f2b | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30 | 2025-10-31 | 100.0% | — | $348K | C | 0x1161a3…a844 | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7 | 2025-10-31 | 100.0% | — | $202K | C | 0xfb9bb7…7d3f | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $708K | C | 0xbc19cb…53d1 | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026 | 2025-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $145K | C | 0x22cb28…cdb3 | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by January 31 | 2026-01-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 1090488 | ||
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 6.0% | $106 | $120K | C | 0x26ebe9…f195 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Reuters (consensus fallback) | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-979N1H7345",
"slug": "israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",
"question": "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-hamas-conflict",
"middle-east",
"ceasefire-agreements",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4024912,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 21,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Reuters (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}