Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-07 ]

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026	2026-06-30	8.0%	$50K	$444K	C	`0x57165b…a5f2`
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026	2026-06-30	0.1%	—	$75K	C	`0xe724ad…a0a2`
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026	2026-06-30	0.1%	—	$1.54M	C	`0x8bb861…a114`
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026	2026-07-31	14.0%	$7.2K	$48K	C	`0x5813dc…9f37`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 4 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DYN9QZ3X25",
  "slug": "israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by",
  "question": "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-lebanon",
    "military-withdrawal",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 2107220,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 30,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →