Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-06 ]
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | 0.1% | — | $690K | C | 0x35aa9d…e7f0 | ||
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026 | 2026-04-15 | 1.5% | — | $212K | C | 0x00cf5f…4f23 | ||
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $251K | C | 0xb7dfd4…5445 | ||
| Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026 | 2026-05-31 | 3.6% | — | $134K | C | 0x250716…cecb | ||
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 12.0% | $16K | $516K | C | 0x3fe18d…e11c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C85G7616S2",
"slug": "israel-strike-on-yemen-by-593",
"question": "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-yemen",
"military-action",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1802950,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 27,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}