Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026? [ resolves 2025-09 – 2026-06 ]
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel strike on Damascus by September 30 | 2025-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $17K | C | 0x032709…6ca7 | ||
| Israel strike on Damascus by December 31 | 2025-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $8.9K | C | 0x64997e…62d8 | ||
| Israel strike on Damascus by October 31 | 2025-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x0ceff1…8021 | ||
| Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026 | 2026-03-31 | 1.0% | — | $135K | C | 0xbfe225…edc6 | ||
| Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026 | 2026-04-30 | 0.2% | — | $7.5K | C | 0x508d34…400c | ||
| Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 6.0% | — | $3.9K | C | 0xeb4bea…17f4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7KHP4D735",
"slug": "israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30",
"question": "Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-syria",
"military-action",
"middle-east-conflict",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 184045,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 29,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}